Key Summary
- Toronto region is located in Southern Ontario and is a large commercial hub for a region with a population of approximately 6,234,430.
- The region accounts for approximately 33% of dairy processing facilities in Ontario, with an emphasis on cheese, butter and ice cream production.
- Dairy processing employment in the region is estimated at approximately 2,055 in 2021 which is actually about 0.1% of the total employment in the area. Manufacturing overall accounts for approximately 10% of employment.
- By the end of this decade (2030), it is estimated that 595 new hires will be required for the regional dairy processing industry, with 40% of this requirement due to replacement of current workers (e.g., retirements).
- Recruitment and retention challenges within this time period are expected to remain similar as a result of unchanging rates of labour market tightness.
key stats
2 Prism Economics and Analysis, 2021
labour market tightness ratings
LMI report series
Food Processing Skills Canada (FPSC) has developed this regional profile of the Toronto, Ontario dairy processing as one within a series of 11 regional reports for the Canadian dairy processing industry.
The regional report series is one component of a larger labour market information study of dairy processing within the context of an overall study of the Canadian food and beverage processing sector:
objectives
Labour markets are often best understood at a local or regional level where various contributing factors are well understood, sources of labour supply can be characterized, and detailed knowledge of individual facilities exist. The purpose of this regional report is to provide information on the dairy processing industry in the greater Toronto, Ontario area so that readers have detailed information and a better understanding of the local dairy processing industry. The profile outlines the demographic and socio-economic characterisitics of the region, the regional labour force, the regional dairy processing industry, and an outlook for the specific dairy processing workforce in the Toronto region.
methods
The methods used to develop the regional profiles included an extensive review of Statistics Canada reports and data that contributed to profile the industry, and project growth in production and employment at the regional level.
In addition, the regional profiles benefitted from a review of other primary and secondary data that enabled the research team to estimate potential labour demand for specific regions, and to identify key industry trends.
The “region” of Toronto, Ontario focuses on a catchment radius of a one-hour commute to dairy establishments to estimate the approximate distance of maximum commuting distance for potential labour force.
demographic characteristics
Toronto, Ontario is a hub for a regional population of approximately 6.2 million with a labour force of approximately 3.4 million and accounts for approximately 42% of the Ontario population.
Population Summary
| Toronto | Ontario | |
|---|---|---|
| Total Population | 6,234,430 | 14,826,000 |
| Total Labour Force | 3,432,732 | 7,990,300 |
| Total Employment | 3,094,693 | 7,317,200 |
Prism Economics and Analysis, 2021
Population by Age Group
Compared with the overall Ontario population, the Toronto region’s population age distribution is similar with 15% in the traditional retirement age category of 65 years or older compared with 17% of the Ontario population. Similar proportions of the Toronto region in the pre retirement age category of 55 to 64 years of age (13% compared to 14% for Ontario). The proportion of the classic core working age population (25-54) is 43% in the Toronto region compared with 41% in Ontario overall.
Population Diversity
| Toronto | Ontario | |
|---|---|---|
| Immigrants Share of Population |
2,671,255 46% |
3,852,145 29% |
| Not Canadian Citizens Share of Population |
720,450 13% |
1,019,095 8% |
| Visible Minority Share of Population |
2,989,725 52% |
3,885,585 29% |
| Aboriginal Identity Share of Population |
46,745 1% |
374,395 3% |
The diversity of population according to immigrant status and visible minorities is significantly higher for the Toronto region compared with Ontario overall. The share of population who were immigrants in 2016 was 46% compared with 29% in Ontario, and self identified visible minorities made up 53% of the Toronto population compared with 29% of Ontario. Similarly, there were larger proportions of the region’s population who were not Canadian citizens (13%) compared to Ontario overall (8%).
Population Mobility (5 years)
| Toronto | Ontario | |
|---|---|---|
| Non-migrants Share of Population |
1,166,805 56% |
2,545,875 55% |
| Migrants Share of Population |
930,420 44% |
2,112,340 45% |
| Internal migrants Share of Population |
543,640 58% |
1,562,375 74% |
| Intraprovincial Share of Population |
477,655 88% |
1,380,900 88% |
| Interprovincial Share of Population |
65,980 12% |
181,480 12% |
| External Migrants Share of Population |
386,785 42% |
549,965 26% |
According to the 2016 Census, there were similar levels of mobility within the population of the Toronto region (44%) compared with Ontario overall (45%), meaning that similar proportions of people had moved into the region within the previous 5 years. The majority of mobility was due to Ontario residents moving to the region (88%). External migrants from outside of Canada were significantly higher in Toronto (42%) compared with Ontario overall (26%).
Indigenous Communities
| First Nation | Reserve(s) | Location | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chippewas of Georgina Island | Chippewa Island | 30 km S of Parry Sound Island | 208 |
| Chippewas of Georgina Island First Nation | SE of Lake Simcoe | ||
| Mississaugas of Scugog Island First Nation | Island in the Trent Waters 36A | In Peterborough County, Islands in Pigeon, Buckhorn & Stony Lakes | 48 |
| Mississaugas of Scugog Island | 42 km S of Peterborough | ||
| Total | 256 | ||
In the surrounding areas, there are two First Nations with four communities, with a total population of approximately 256 community members. Overall, approximately 1% of the region’s population self-identify as Aboriginal, according to the 2016 Census, which is slightly lower than the overall rate of 3% for the province.
socio-economic characteristics
Educational Attainment
The Toronto regional population has similar rates of post-secondary participation compared with Ontario overall. Over one-half (58%) report having some form of post-secondary diploma, certificate or degree compared with 55% of Ontario overall. There is a lower concentration of college and apprenticeship training (21%) compared with Ontario (27%), and proportionally more university-level degrees or diplomas (37% vs. 28% in Ontario).
Average Employment Income
Average employment income among Toronto regional residents was approximately 9% higher in 2015 compared with Ontario overall, according to Census 2016. The average employment income for Toronto regional residents was approximately $51,600 compared with $47,400 for Ontario overall. The average government transfers were approximately 13% lower for Toronto region residents at $6,400 compared with $7,300 for Ontario overall in 2015.
Approximately two-thirds of the Toronto region population (66%) are homeowners, with a similar proportion (66%) reporting spending less than 30% of their income on shelter costs in 2016. The average monthly housing cost for renters was lower, at approximately $1,300, compared to homeowners at approximately $1,463.
Housing Costs
Housing Composition
regional labour force
The size of the regional labour force in 2021 was just over three million, which was approximately 43% of Ontario’s overall labour force. The participation rate in the region is similar (65.0%) compared to Ontario (63.7%). Among those in the labour force, the unemployment rate was higher (9.8% vs. 8.4% in Ontario overall).
Labour Force Characteristics
| Toronto | Ontario | |
|---|---|---|
| In labour force | 3,432,732 | 7,990,300 |
| Employed | 3,094,693 | 7,317,200 |
| Unemployed | 338,039 | 673,200 |
| Participation Rate | 65.0% | 63.7% |
| Employment Rate | 58.6% | 58.3% |
| Unemployment Rate | 9.8% | 8.4% |
Labour force projections indicate an approximate 14% overall growth in the next decade, rising from approximately 3.4 million in 2021 to 3.9 million by 2030. The anticipated age composition will see the largest increases occurring in the core group of workers aged 25 to 54 years old. The younger cohort (under 25 years old) is expected to proportionally grow as well during this period.
Labour Force Characteristics
Labour Force by Industry
| Industry | Regional Labour Force | % of Labour Force |
|---|---|---|
| Professional, scientific and technical services | 422,743 | 12% |
| Retail trade | 372,560 | 11% |
| Health care and social assistance | 344,387 | 10% |
| Manufacturing | 330,857 | 10% |
| Educational services | 214,884 | 6% |
| Construction | 200,547 | 6% |
| Accommodation and food services | 147,278 | 4% |
The largest proportions of the Toronto regional labour force are working in professional, scientific and technical services (12%) and retail (11%), with a similar proportion working in health care and social assistance (10%). The manufacturing industry accounts for 10% of the regional labour force and is the sector within which the dairy processing sector would be categorized.
Job Characteristics by Industry (Ontario overall)
| Ontario | Job Vacancy Rate | Average Hourly Wage |
|---|---|---|
| All industries | 3.7% | $23.90 |
| Food manufacturing | 3.9% | $20.32 |
| Accommodation and food services | 5.3% | $14.98 |
| Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services | 5.5% | $20.13 |
| Professional, scientific, and technical services | 4.0% | $34.87 |
| Health care and social assistance | 4.7% | $25.72 |
| Arts, entertainment, and recreation | 5.9% | $20.85 |
| Transportation and warehousing | 3.1% | $23.00 |
Although not available at the regional level, an examination of the Ontario vacancy rate and average hourly wage data by industry gives some indication for the region as to the potential opportunities and challenges in recruiting and retaining sufficient labour for the dairy processing industry. The job vacancy rate for food manufacturing is similar at 3.9% when compared to all industries at 3.7%. The average hourly wage ($20.32) is notably lower than that for all industries ($23.90), but significantly higher than the minimum wage in Ontario of $15.50 (as of October 1st, 2022).
dairy processing sector regional profile
Within the greater Toronto region, there are 44 dairy processing establishments with a large emphasis on butter, cheese and ice cream production. The region accounts for approximately 33% of the dairy processing facilities in Ontario. Regional employment in the dairy processing sector is estimated in 2021 at 2,055, with the largest proportions of the workforce in management, finance, sales or administrative positions (732; 36%), and skilled or semi-skilled occupations (308; 32%). Other sizeable proportions of the regional dairy workforce are found in the trades (305; 15%), and entry-level labourers (218; 11%).
Dairy Processing Establishments (2021)
Dairy Processing Employment (2021)
| Occupation Group | # Employed |
|---|---|
| Management, Finance, Sales, Admin | 732 |
| Skilled/Semi-Skilled | 654 |
| Trades | 305 |
| Entry-level Labourers | 218 |
| Product Development and QC | 102 |
| Other | 44 |
| Total | 2,055 |
dairy processing workforce outlook
Dairy processing employment in the Toronto region is expected to grow by approximately 11.7% over the upcoming decade, rising from 2,055 in 2021 to 2,295 by 2030, a change of approximately 240. However, the overall hiring requirements will be substantially larger due to the need to replace workers as they retire or leave the industry for various reasons. The actual hiring requirement is expected to be in the range of 595 workers. Anticipated growth will account for 356 new hires (61%), while the remaining 239 new hires (39%) will be needed due to replacement requirements. The largest hiring requirements will occur in the second half of the decade (2026–2030). From the demographic analysis, the number of youth new entrants into the industry likely available to fill these new hire positions is approximately 16–21 youth per year, or approximately 25% of the full requirement. This suggests that hiring requirements will need to consider other labour supply sources in order to meet the demand, largely attributable to labour replacement requirements (retirements).
Total Dairy Processing Workforce Outlook
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Force | 2,183 | 2,275 | 2,346 | 2,381 | 2,410 | 2,429 | 2,448 | 2,451 | 2,454 | 2,471 |
| Employment | 2,055 | 2,057 | 2,108 | 2,143 | 2,168 | 2,191 | 2,218 | 2,246 | 2,270 | 2,295 |
| Net Hiring Requirement | 23 | 23 | 70 | 62 | 50 | 67 | 70 | 78 | 77 | 75 |
| Employment Growth | 23 | 21 | 20 | 27 | 26 | 43 | 43 | 50 | 52 | 51 |
| Replacement | 0 | 2 | 51 | 36 | 24 | 24 | 27 | 28 | 25 | 24 |
| Youth New Entrants | 101 | 24 | 22 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 21 |
Dairy Processing Employment Outlook
| Occupation Group | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry-level Labourers | 218 | 269 | 275 | 280 | 283 | 287 | 290 | 294 | 297 | 300 |
| Management, Finance, Sales, and Administration | 732 | 685 | 702 | 714 | 722 | 730 | 739 | 748 | 756 | 765 |
| Other | 44 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 43 | 44 | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Product Development and Quality Control | 102 | 91 | 93 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 |
| Skilled/Semi-Skilled | 654 | 667 | 683 | 695 | 703 | 711 | 720 | 729 | 738 | 746 |
| Trades | 305 | 304 | 311 | 316 | 320 | 323 | 327 | 330 | 334 | 337 |
| Total | 2055 | 2057 | 2108 | 2143 | 2168 | 2191 | 2218 | 2246 | 2270 | 2295 |
Dairy Processing Hiring Requirement Outlook
| Occupation Group | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry-level Labourers | 1 | 52 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| Management, Finance, Sales, and Administration | 11 | -37 | 26 | 25 | 20 | 28 | 29 | 33 | 33 | 32 |
| Other | 2 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Product Development and Quality Control | 4 | -7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Skilled/Semi-Skilled | 1 | 15 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| Trades | 4 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Total | 23 | 23 | 70 | 62 | 50 | 67 | 70 | 78 | 77 | 75 |
The types of workers that will be needed for the Toronto region dairy processing industry vary slightly year to year according to estimates, yet across the decade, the largest proportion of new hires will be within the occupations aligned with management, finance, sales and administration with a total of 200 new workers needed, accounting for approximately 38% of the total hiring requirements between 2021 and 2030.
Similar numbers of skilled/semi-skilled workers (118; 22%) and entry-level labourers (103; 19%) will be needed. This is of particular concern given the increasing competition for similar occupations from other industries.
labour market tightness
Labour market tightness is a measure of the share of the annual supply change that occurs after accounting for available new entrants. Recruitment challenges increase as the proportion of workers needed to be recruited from other industries, occupations, and geographic regions rises. Recruitment challenges are exacerbated when tightness in other industries exceeds that of the dairy sector.
Reading the Rankings
Labour markets have tightened significantly in recent years, and what were previously periodic recruitment challenges have now become permanent challenges faced by employers in all sectors of the economy. Given this reality, the ranks are intended to be interpreted in relation to recruitment and retention conditions experienced over the previous five years. The analysis of labour market tightness uses a relative ranking system:
For the Toronto region’s dairy processing sector, the labour market tightness rating increased as of 2022, which will likely result in the industry experiencing more challenges in recruitment and retention than in previous years.
Labour Market Tightness Ratings 2021-2030: Toronto Region
| Year | Labour Market Tightness |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 1 – Less Tightness |
| 2022 | 3 – Greater Tightness |
| 2023 | 2 – Normal Tightness |
| 2024 | 2 – Normal Tightness |
| 2025 | 2 – Normal Tightness |
| 2026 | 2 – Normal Tightness |
| 2027 | 2 – Normal Tightness |
| 2028 | 2 – Normal Tightness |
| 2029 | 2 – Normal Tightness |
| 2030 | 2 – Normal Tightness |
