Key Summary
- Winnipeg is located in Southern Manitoba and is an urban hub for a region with a population of approximately 900,000.
- The region accounts for approximately 85% of dairy processing facilities in Manitoba, with an emphasis on cheese and butter production.
- Dairy processing employment in the region is estimated at approximately 873 in 2021, which is about 0.1% of the total employment in the area. Manufacturing overall accounts for approximately 9% of employment.
- By the end of this decade (2030), it is estimated that 188 new hires will be required for the regional dairy processing industry, with 76% of this requirement due to replacement of current workers (e.g., retirements).
- Recruitment and retention challenges within this time period are expected to increase as a result of increased labour market tightness.
key stats
2 Prism Economics and Analysis, 2021
labour market tightness ratings
LMI report series
Food Processing Skills Canada (FPSC) has developed this regional profile of the Winnipeg, Manitoba dairy processing as one within a series of 11 regional reports for the Canadian dairy processing industry. The regional report series is one component of a larger labour market information study of dairy processing within the context of an overall study of the Canadian food and beverage processing sector. Visit the link below to access the Crossroads to Greatness and other LMI reports:
objectives
Labour markets are often best understood at a local or regional level where various contributing factors are well understood, sources of labour supply can be characterized, and detailed knowledge of individual facilities exist. The purpose of this regional report is to provide information on the dairy processing industry in the Winnipeg Metropolitan region so that readers have detailed information and a better understanding of the local dairy processing industry. The profile outlines the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the region, the regional labour force, the regional dairy processing industry, and an outlook for the specific dairy processing workforce in the Winnipeg region.
methods
The methods used to develop the regional profiles included an extensive review of Statistics Canada reports and data that contributed to profile the industry, and project growth in production and employment at the regional level.
In addition, the regional profiles benefitted from a review of other primary and secondary data that enabled the research team to estimate potential labour demand for specific regions, and to identify key industry trends.
The “region” of Winnipeg, Manitoba focuses on a catchment radius of approximately XXkm from the city centre to estimate the approximate distance of maximum commuting distance for potential labour force.
demographic characteristics
Winnipeg, Manitoba is an urban hub for a regional population of approximately 889,000 with a labour force of approximately 478,000 and accounts for approximately 64% of the Manitoba population.
Population Summary
| Winnipeg | Manitoba | |
|---|---|---|
| Total Population | 883,751 | 1,387,000 |
| Total Labour Force | 478,139 | 703,900 |
| Total Employment | 442,081 | 656,300 |
Prism Economics and Analysis, 2021
Population by Age Group
Compared with the overall Manitoba population, the Winnipeg region’s population is very similar with approximately one in seven residents (15%) in the traditional retirement age category of 65 years or older. The proportion of the classic core working age population (25-54) is 41% in the Winnipeg region compared with 39% in Manitoba overall.
Population Diversity
| Winnipeg | Manitoba | |
|---|---|---|
|
Immigrants Share of Population |
187,180 23% |
227,465 29% |
|
Not Canadian Citizens Share of Population |
85,105 10% |
107,620 14% |
|
Visible Minorities Share of Population |
195,835 24% |
216,850 29% |
|
Aboriginal Identity Share of Population |
99,700 11% |
223,310 18% |
The diversity of population according to immigrant status and visible minorities is similar for the Winnipeg region compared with Manitoba overall. The share of population who were immigrants in 2016 was 23% compared with 29% in Manitoba, and self-identified visible minorities made up 24% of the Winnipeg population compared with 17% of Manitoba. There were also similar proportions of the region’s population who were not Canadian citizens (11%) compared to Manitoba overall (9%).
Population Mobility (5 years)
| Winnipeg | Manitoba | |
|---|---|---|
|
Non-migrants Share of Population |
194,385 64% |
261,015 59% |
|
Migrants Share of Population |
109,650 36% |
181,585 41% |
|
Internal migrants Share of Population |
55,690 51% |
117,153 64% |
|
Intraprovincial Share of Population |
37,200 67% |
86,295 74% |
|
Interprovincial Share of Population |
18,515 33% |
30,840 26% |
|
External Migrants Share of Population |
53,975 49% |
64,445 36% |
According to the 2016 Census, there was slightly less mobility within the population of Winnipeg region (36%) compared with Manitoba overall (41%), meaning that proportionally fewer people had moved into the region within the previous 5 years. There was a relatively even split between Canadian residents moving to the region (51%) and external migrants from outside of Canada (49%).
Indigenous Communities
| First Nation | Reserve(s) | Location | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roseau River Anishinaabe | Roseau River 2 | 80 KM south of Winnipeg | 1,212 |
| Brokenhead Ojibway | Brokenhead 4 | 64 KM north-east of Winnipeg | 787 |
| Dakota Tipi | Dakota Tipi 1 | 60 KM west of Winnipeg | 248 |
| Total | 2,247 | ||
In the surrounding areas, there are three First Nations with three communities with a total population of approximately 2,247 community members. Overall, approximately 12% of the region’s population self-identify as Aboriginal according to the 2016 Census which is lower compared to the overall rate of 18% for the province.
socio-economic characteristics
Educational Attainment
The Winnipeg regional population has similar rates of post-secondary participation compared with Manitoba overall. Approximately one-half (52%) report having some form of post-secondary diploma, certificate or degree compared with 48% of Manitoba overall.
Average Employment Income
Average employment income among Winnipeg regional residents was approximately 4% higher in 2015 compared with Manitoba overall according to Census 2016. The average employment income for Winnipeg regional residents was approximately $44,000 compared with $42,500 for Manitoba overall. The average government transfers was approximately 5% lower for Winnipeg region residents at $6,700 compared with $7,100 for Manitoba overall in 2015.
Approximately two-thirds of Winnipeg region population (68%) are home owners, with a higher proportion (79%) reporting spending less than 30% of their income on shelter costs in 2016. The average monthly housing costs for renters was lower at approximately $937 compared with home owners at approximately $1,085.
Housing Costs
Housing Composition
regional labour force
The size of the regional labour force in 2021 was just over 475,000, which was 68% of Manitoba’s overall labour force. The participation rate in the region is slightly higher (65.2%) compared to Manitoba (62.5%). Among those in the labour force, the unemployment rates were slightly higher in Winnipeg (7.5%) compared with Manitoba overall (6.8%).
Labour Force Characteristics
| Winnipeg | Manitoba | |
|---|---|---|
| In labour force | 478,139 | 703,900 |
| Employed | 442,081 | 656,300 |
| Unemployed | 36,057 | 47,600 |
| Participation Rate | 65.2% | 62.5% |
| Employment Rate | 60.5% | 58.3% |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.5% | 6.8% |
Prism Economics and Analysis, 2021
Labour force projections indicate an approximate 8% overall growth in the next decade rising from approximately 478,000 in 2021 to 522,000 by 2030. The anticipated age composition will see a slight decline in older workers (55 years and older) with the largest increases occurring in the core group of workers aged 25 to 54 years old. The younger cohort (under 25 years old) is expected to proportionally grow as well during this period.
Labour Force Characteristics
Labour Force by Industry
| Industry | Regional Labour Force | % of Labour Force |
|---|---|---|
| Health care and social assistance | 74,196 | 16% |
| Retail trade | 50,074 | 11% |
| Manufacturing | 42,080 | 9% |
| Educational services | 41,427 | 9% |
| Construction | 32,890 | 7% |
| Accommodation and food services | 27,641 | 6% |
| Professional, scientific and technical services | 27,330 | 6% |
The largest proportions of the Winnipeg regional labour force are working in health care, social assistance (16%) and retail trade (10%), with a similar proportion working in manufacturing (9%) as well as educational services (9%). The manufacturing industry is the sector within which the dairy processing sector would be categorized.
Job Characteristics by Industry (Manitoba overall)
| Manitoba | Job Vacancy Rate | Average Hourly Wage |
|---|---|---|
| All industries | 3.3% | $24.18 |
| Food manufacturing | 2.6% | $20.77 |
| Accommodation and food services | 3.4% | $13.02 |
| Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services | 4.6% | $16.25 |
| Professional, scientific, and technical services | 3.7% | $25.92 |
| Health care and social assistance | 5.5% | $22.72 |
| Arts, entertainment, and recreation | 2.8% | $15.70 |
| Transportation and warehousing | 5.5% | $21.35 |
Although not available at the regional level, an examination of the Manitoba vacancy rate and average hourly wage data by industry gives some indication for the region as to the potential opportunities and challenges in recruiting and retaining sufficient labour for the dairy processing industry. The job vacancy rate for food manufacturing is slightly lower at 2.6% when compared to all industries at 3.3%. The average hourly wage ($20.77) is notably lower than that for all industries ($24.18), but significantly higher than the minimum wage in Manitoba of $11.95 (as of January 1st, 2022).
dairy processing sector regional profile
Within the greater Winnipeg region, there are 11 dairy processing establishments with a large emphasis on butter and cheese production. The region accounts for approximately 85% of the dairy processing facilities in Manitoba. Regional employment in the dairy processing sector is estimated in 2021 at 573, with the largest proportions of the workforce in management, finance, sales or administrative positions (216; 38%), and skilled or semi-skilled occupations (179; 31%). Other sizeable proportions of the regional dairy workforce are found in the trades (70; 12%), and entry-level labourers (49; 9%).
Dairy Processing Establishments (2021)
Dairy Processing Employment (2021)
| Occupation Group | # Employed |
|---|---|
| Management, Finance, Sales, Admin | 216 |
| Entry-level Labourers | 49 |
| Other | 20 |
| Product Development and QC | 39 |
| Skilled/Semi-Skilled | 179 |
| Trades | 70 |
| Total | 573 |
dairy processing workforce outlook
Dairy processing employment in the Winnipeg region is expected to grow by approximately 7.9% over the upcoming decade rising from 573 in 2021 to 618 by 2030—a change of approximately 45. However, the overall hiring requirements will be substantially larger due to the need to replace workers as they retire or leave the industry for various reasons. The actual hiring requirement is expected to be in the range of 188 workers. Anticipated growth will account for 45 new hires (23.9%) while the remaining 143 new hires (76.1%) will be needed due to replacement requirements. The largest hiring requirements will occur in the second half of the decade in 2026–2030. From the demographic analysis, the number of youth new entrants into the industry likely available to fill these new hire positions are under 5 per year or approximately 10% of the full requirement. This suggests that hiring requirements will need to consider other labour supply sources in order to meet the demand, largely attributable to labour replacement requirements (retirements).
Total Dairy Processing Workforce Outlook
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Force | 579 | 597 | 610 | 619 | 622 | 625 | 632 | 639 | 645 | 651 |
| Employment | 573 | 573 | 582 | 590 | 596 | 601 | 606 | 612 | 615 | 618 |
| Net Hiring Requirement | 14 | 10 | 23 | 22 | 17 | 21 | 22 | 29 | 29 | 33 |
| Employment Growth | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Replacement | 14 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 16 | 17 | 23 | 26 | 30 |
| Youth New Entrants | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Dairy Processing Employment Outlook
| Occupation Group | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Management, Finance, Sales, and Administration | 216 | 217 | 223 | 226 | 228 | 230 | 232 | 236 | 240 | 243 |
| Entry-level Labourers | 49 | 59 | 60 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 63 | 63 | 63 |
| Other | 20 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Product Development and Quality Control | 39 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 35 |
| Skilled/Semi-Skilled | 179 | 184 | 186 | 189 | 192 | 194 | 194 | 196 | 197 | 198 |
| Trades | 70 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 70 | 72 | 73 | 75 | 76 |
| Total | 573 | 573 | 582 | 590 | 596 | 601 | 606 | 612 | 615 | 618 |
Dairy Processing Hiring Requirement Outlook
| Occupation Group | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Management, Finance, Sales, and Administration | 7 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Entry-level Labourers | 1 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Product Development and Quality Control | 2 | -7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Skilled/Semi-Skilled | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Trades | 2 | -3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Total | 14 | 10 | 23 | 22 | 17 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 19 | 19 |
The types of workers that will be needed for the Winnipeg region dairy processing industry vary slightly year to year according to estimates. Yet across the decade, the largest proportion of new hires will be within the occupations aligned with management, finance, sales and administration with a total of 89 new workers needed accounting for approximately 48% of the total hiring requirements between 2021 and 2030. Similar numbers of skilled and semi-skilled (25; 13%) and trades (23; 12%) workers will be needed. This is of particular concern given the more extensive training requirements for these combined with the increasing competition for these occupations from other industries.
labour market tightness
Labour market tightness is a measure of the share of the annual supply change that occurs after accounting for available new entrants. Recruitment challenges increase as the proportion of workers need to be recruited from other industries, occupations and geographic regions rises. Recruitment challenges are exacerbated when tightness in other industries exceeds that of the dairy sector.
Reading the Rankings
Labour markets have tightened significantly in recent years and what were previously periodic recruitment challenges have now become permanent challenges faced by employers in all sectors of the economy. Given this reality, the ranks are intended to be interpreted in relation to recruitment and retention conditions experienced over the previous five years. The analysis of labour market tightness uses a relative ranking system:
Labour Market Tightness Ratings 2021-2030: Quebec-Levis Region
| 2021 | 2 – Normal Tightness |
| 2022 | 3 – Greater Tightness |
| 2023 | 3 – Greater Tightness |
| 2024 | 3 – Greater Tightness |
| 2025 | 2 – Normal Tightness |
| 2026 | 2 – Normal Tightness |
| 2027 | 3 – Greater Tightness |
| 2028 | 3 – Greater Tightness |
| 2029 | 3 – Greater Tightness |
| 2030 | 3 – Greater Tightness |
