Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Canadian Food Consumer Behaviour

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Introduction | About the Consumer Survey

This report is the third of an ongoing series of Consumer Surveys to be conducted for gathering insights into Canadians’:

  • Grocery shopping habits
  • Perceptions of food and beverage products available to them (e.g., safety)
  • Priorities and considerations when grocery shopping
  • Experience amid increasing food prices and inflation
  • Labour market perceptions (e.g., views of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program)

This survey follows the recent March 2025 study ‘Palates and Pockets Revisited’ and includes several tracking items to measure change.

Methodology

A total of 1500 adult residents from across Canada were surveyed online, between March 17 -March 20, 2025.

The sample was randomly drawn from Leger’s web panel of potential survey respondents.

Post-stratification weights were applied to the sample based on 2021 census population figures to ensure representation by province, age, and gender.

An associated margin of error for a probability-based sample of this size would be ±3%, 19 times out of 20.

Key Findings

Consumer Concerns and Shifting Priorities: Despite easing official inflation rates, the perception of high grocery prices remains a significant concern for Canadian consumers. Only a small minority (10%) believe inflation is slowing, with women particularly likely to perceive ongoing price increases. However, trust in the food sold in Canadian grocery stores is on the rise, potentially influenced by recent trade disputes. While price remain a key consideration, consumers are increasingly prioritizing other factors, such as supporting Canadian producers.

Trade Disputes and Evolving Shopping Habits: Awareness of U.S. trade disputes is almost universal among Canadian consumers, and these disputes are now a significant driver of change in grocery shopping habits. Nearly half (43%) of consumers report making significant changes to their shopping habits in the past two months, primarily driven by a desire to buy Canadian products and avoid U.S. products. This trend is particularly strong among seniors.

Challenges in Identifying Canadian Products: A major barrier to consumers’ ability to support Canadian producers is the difficulty in identifying Canadian products. Only 60% of consumers find it easy to determine a product’s origin, highlighting a significant opportunity for improvement. This challenge is particularly pronounced among men.

Increased Demand and Untapped Potential: As a result of shifting priorities, two-thirds (67%) of consumers are now buying more Canadian products. The top motivations for doing so include a belief that it’s good for the economy, frustration with the U.S., and a desire to support Canadian processors. However, the perception of higher prices and the difficulty in identifying Canadian products remain significant barriers. Despite these challenges, a large majority (70%) of consumers say they would buy more Canadian products if it were easier to identify them, highlighting a significant untapped potential for growth.

A grocery shopping cart filled with fresh produce such as eggplants, bell peppers, lettuce, and a pineapple, seen in a supermarket aisle with blurred shelves stocked with various items.

Tracking Perceptions of Grocery Inflation

Consumer Perceptions of Food Inflation: A Persistent Concern

Despite easing official inflation rates, consumer perception of food inflation remains strong. Only 10% of Canadians believe food inflation is slowing (down from 14% in November 2024), with women significantly less likely to agree.

Nearly all respondents (61%) perceive grocery prices as having increased “a lot” in the past 12 months, consistent with November 2024 findings. While this is lower than the 84% reported in 2023 when official inflation was higher, it still indicates a widespread concern.

  • Women are more likely to perceive a significant increase in grocery prices.

Approximately half (48%) estimate grocery price increases exceeding 10% in the past year, a slight decrease from 52% in November 2024 and 63% in 2023.

Perceptions of Grocery Inflation

Only 10% of respondents in early 2025 believe food inflation is slowing down, down from 14% in November 2024 and 11% in October 2023.

Perceptions of Rising Grocery Costs

In 2025, 92% of Canadians say grocery prices have increased over the past year, with 61% saying they’ve increased a lot—down from 84% in 2023.
In 2024, 76% of respondents said they’re paying 6% or more for groceries compared to last year, with fewer now reporting increases over 20% (16%) than in 2023 (27%).
A grocery shopping cart filled with fresh produce such as eggplants, bell peppers, lettuce, and a pineapple, seen in a supermarket aisle with blurred shelves stocked with various items.

Tracking Perceptions of Food Quality & Safety, and Determining Product Attributes

Trust in Canadian Food on the Rise and Challenges in Identifying Canadian Products:
A Barrier to Consumer Choice

Consumer trust in the food sold in Canadian grocery stores has increased significantly, rising to 76% from 68% in November 2024 and a low of 63% in October 2023.

  • Seniors exhibit the highest level of trust (86%).

There’s a slight decrease in consumers prioritizing price over brand, although younger consumers (particularly Gen Z) remain more price–sensitive.

A key finding is the difficulty many consumers face in identifying Canadian products. Only 60% find it easy to determine a product’s origin (down from 66% in October 2023), contrasting with the ease of determining price (87%), freshness (82%), and quality (70%). This presents a significant opportunity for improvement.

  • Men report greater difficulty in determining product origin.

Tracking Views of Quality & Safety

In 2025, 76% of Canadians trust the food sold in grocery stores (up from 68% in 2024), while fewer now say brand rarely matters—49%, down from 55% in previous years.

Determining Product Attributes

Canadians in 2025 find it slightly less easy to assess grocery factors like price (87%, down from 90%) and freshness (82%, down from 84%) compared to 2023.
The image shows a person wrapped in a U.S. flag, standing near another individual who is handling a shopping cart. They appear to be outside on a paved surface, possibly near a grocery store or shopping area. The mood is casual and bright, with both individuals dressed in modern, relaxed clothing.

Awareness & Concern Regarding U.S. Tariffs & Trade Rhetoric

High Awareness, High Concern: Canadian Consumers and the U.S. Trade Relationship

Awareness of tariffs/trade restrictions between the U.S. and Canada is almost universal (98%), with higher awareness among men and seniors. Concern about the trade dispute is also high (85%), reaching 90% among seniors.

Awareness of U.S. President Trump’s “51st state” suggestion is also at 98%. Concern regarding this rhetoric is high (62%), but lower than concern about tariffs.

Half of consumers view the Canadian and U.S. economies as “mostly” integrated, with 12% seeing them as “completely” integrated. However, only about one-third desire this level of integration in the future, with most preferring “slight” or no integration.

Awareness & Concern About Tariffs

A striking 98% of respondents say they’ve heard about tariffs or trade restrictions between Canada and the United States.
Among those aware of U.S.-Canada trade tensions, 85% say they’re concerned about the impact of tariffs or trade restrictions.

Canada as the 51st State

An overwhelming 98% of respondents say they’ve heard about former U.S. President Donald Trump’s suggestion that Canada become the 51st state.
Among those aware of the suggestion, 62% say they’re concerned about Donald Trump’s proposal for Canada to become the 51st U.S. state.

Views on Economic Integration

In 2024, 62% of respondents believed the Canadian and American economies were either completely (12%) or mostly (50%) integrated.
Looking ahead, only 31% of respondents think the Canadian and American economies should be mostly or completely integrated—down from 62% who believed they were that integrated in 2024.
The image shows a smiling woman holding a small Canadian flag while standing inside a grocery store. She’s dressed casually in a red and black plaid shirt, and there's a shopping basket on the counter beside her. The setting and her cheerful expression suggest pride or positivity related to Canadian food or shopping experiences.

Recent Changes in Canadians Grocery Shopping Habits

Evolving Grocery Store Shopping Habits: Responding to Trade Disputes

Canadian consumers continue to adapt their grocery shopping habits, initially driven by the COVID-19 pandemic
and then by inflation. This survey reveals that the U.S. trade dispute is now a significant driver of change.

43% of consumers report making significant changes to their grocery shopping habits in the two months preceding the survey, while only 18% report no changes. Ontarians are most
likely to report changes (48%), and Quebeckers are least. likely (36%).

The primary motivation for these changes is a desire to buy Canadian products (81%) and avoid U.S. products (76%). Seniors prioritize buying Canadian, while immigrants and those under 35 place less emphasis on it.

Buying products from one’s province is more important to Quebecers (82%) and less so to Albertans (48%).

Increased Demand for Canadian Products: A Growing Trend

Two-thirds of consumers (67%) report buying more Canadian products in the past two months, including 26% who indicate buying “much more.” Immigrants and lower-income consumers are less likely to have increased their purchases of Canadian products.

Consumers are most likely to report buying more Canadian produce, followed by bakery and grains, canned goods, meat/poultry/seafood, and dairy products. Alcoholic beverages are at the bottom of the list.

Half of consumers report shopping at Canadian grocery retailers more often, while 30% report shopping at U.S.-based retailers at the same frequency as before.

Changes in Grocery Shopping Habits

43% of consumers say their grocery shopping habits, including alcohol purchases, have changed significantly over the past two months.
Over the past two months, 81% of consumers say buying Canadian products has become more important, followed by avoiding U.S. products (76%) and prioritizing local/provincial goods (64%).

Buying Canadian

Over the past two months, 67% of consumers say they’ve purchased more Canadian products, while 27% report buying about the same amount and only 4% say they've bought fewer.

What Canadians are Buying More of

In the past two months, 58% of consumers report buying more Canadian produce, followed by bakery and grains (46%), canned goods, meat/poultry/seafood, and dairy (all at 44%), while alcoholic beverages saw the lowest increase at 34%.

Changes to Where Canadians Shop

Half of consumers (50%) say they’ve shifted at least somewhat away from U.S.-based retailers like Walmart and Costco toward Canadian ones such as Loblaws, Sobeys, and Maxi.
Shopping cart in a grocery store produce section, next to bins of red, yellow, and purple potatoes, with leafy greens visible in the background.

Drivers & Barriers to Buying Canadian

Understanding the Drivers and Barriers to Buying Canadian

The top motivations for buying more Canadian products are the belief that it’s good for the economy (86%), “anger/frustration” with the U.S. (75%), a desire to help Canadian food and beverage processors (72%), and Canadian pride (71%). Very few are motivated by a belief that Canadian products cost less.

  • Women are more likely to be motivated by helping Canadian processors, while seniors are motivated by multiple factors.

The main barriers to buying more Canadian products are the perception that they are more expensive and the difficulty in identifying them.

  • Forgetting to look for Canadian products is more of an issue for younger consumers.

52% of consumers who increased their purchases of Canadian products report an increase in their grocery bills, but only 5% consider the increase to be “much more expensive.”

Price Sensitivity and the Desire to Support Canadian Products

While price remains a key consideration, only 24% of consumers are unwilling to pay more to substitute a comparable Canadian product for a U.S. one.

27% would pay up to 5% more, while 25% are willing to pay 6% or more. Another 20% say their willingness to pay more depends on the specific product.

  • Higher-income consumers are more willing to pay more for Canadian grocery products.

Drivers of Buying Canadian

Most consumers say buying Canadian supports the economy (86%), with motivations also tied to frustration with the U.S. (75%) and Canadian pride (71%), while few cite lower cost (9%).

Barriers to Buying Canadian

The top barriers to buying more Canadian products are higher prices (30%) and difficulty identifying them (27%), while only 3% cite lower quality.

Perceived Cost of Buying Canadian

52% of consumers say that buying more Canadian products has made their grocery bill more expensive.
41% of consumers say their shift toward buying Canadian products is permanent, while 33% will continue as long as it's affordable, and 21% until U.S.-Canada issues are resolved.

Willingness to Pay More for Canadian Products

The image shows a woman in a grocery store carefully examining a jar of pasta, likely reading the label or ingredients. She appears thoughtful, suggesting she may be considering factors like origin, quality, or healthfulness of the product—typical of mindful or values-driven shopping behavior.

The Challenge of Identifying Canadian Products

Improving Product Identification: A Key to Unlocking Consumer Demand

Identifying Canadian products remains a significant challenge. Only 40% of consumers find it easy to determine how “Canadian” a product is. The most common method for identifying Canadian products is reading product labels (76%), followed by looking for Canadian symbols (e.g., the flag) on packaging. Only 11% use mobile apps or online tools.

Only 47% of respondents correctly identified “Product of Canada” as the “most Canadian” product, highlighting a lack of understanding of labeling.

Significant room for growth exists in Canadian product purchases

48% of those who haven’t increased their purchases of Canadian products want to start doing so. Difficulty identifying Canadian products is a major barrier for this group. 81% of this group would buy more Canadian products if it were easier to determine how Canadian it is.

Only 48% of consumers agree that grocery retailers have done a “good job” of making it easy to determine how Canadian a product is.

70% of all consumers say they would buy a lot more Canadian products if it was easier to determine how Canadian it is.

Perceived Cost of Buying Canadian

40% of consumers say it is easy to get a sense of how "Canadian" a product is when shopping in grocery stores.
Survey shows 76% read labels to identify Canadian products, with others relying on symbols (51%), signs (40%), or taking no action (11%).

Buy Canadian Knowledge Test

Two circular logos are shown side by side, each featuring a red maple leaf in the center; the left logo reads "PRODUCT OF CANADA / PRODUIT DU CANADA" and the right logo reads "MADE IN CANADA / FAIT AU CANADA", with the question above asking which would be chosen as the most Canadian product when grocery shopping.
Bar chart showing survey responses about which label best represents the most Canadian product: 47% chose "Product of Canada", 29% chose "Made in Canada", 20% said "They both mean the same thing", and 4% answered "Don't know" (sample base: 1,500).

Making it Easier to Buy Canadian

Infographic showing that 48% of those not currently buying more Canadian products want to start doing so, 70% agree they'd buy more if it were easier to determine how Canadian a product is, and only 48% believe grocery retailers are doing a good job making that determination easy (sample base: 495–1,500).
A grocery store produce section showing bins filled with red and yellow potatoes on the left and a shopping cart with red handles in the aisle on the right.

Implications for Industry

Implications for Industry Responding to Consumer Trends

Enhanced Product Labeling & Transparency:

  • Consumers struggle to identify Canadian products. Clearer, more prominent “Product of Canada” and “Made in Canada” labeling is crucial.

  • Consider using standardized symbols and placement on packaging.

  • Explore digital solutions (QR codes, apps) to provide detailed product origin information.

Strategic Pricing & Value Communication:

  • Address the perception that Canadian products are more expensive.

  • Highlight the value proposition of Canadian products (quality, local economic benefits, ethical sourcing).

  • Consider targeted promotions and discounts on Canadian products.

Retailer Partnerships & Shelf Placement:

  • Collaborate with retailers to improve shelf placement and signage for Canadian products.

  • Create dedicated “Shop Canadian” sections or displays.

  • Offer training to store staff to help them answer consumer questions about product origin.

Targeted Marketing & Messaging:

  • Develop marketing campaigns that emphasize the benefits of buying Canadian, appealing to consumer values (economic support, pride, quality).

  • Tailor messaging to different demographics (e.g., focus on value for younger consumers, quality and local support for seniors).

  • Address consumer concerns about trade disputes and the importance of supporting the Canadian economy.

Innovation & Product Development:

  • Explore opportunities to develop new and innovative Canadian products that meet consumer needs and preferences.

  • Highlight the unique qualities and ingredients of Canadian products.

A respondent profile infographic shows demographic breakdowns by age, gender, household income, region, and other characteristics. Age groups range from 18–24 (10%) to 65+ (26%). Gender distribution is 51% women and 49% men. Household income ranges from under $20,000 (5%) to $170,000 or more (10%), with 20% in both the $40K–$69,999 and $70K–$99,999 ranges. Regional distribution includes Ontario (38%), Quebec (23%), British Columbia (14%), Alberta (11%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (6%), and Atlantic Canada (7%). Additional characteristics show 78% of respondents are Canadian-born, and 24% are parents of children under 18.

For more information, please contact:

Jennefer Griffith
Executive Director
Food Processing Skills Canada (FPSC)

jgriffith@fpsc-ctac.com

Kevin Elder
FPSC Project and Government Relations Manager

kelder@fpsc-ctac.com
Two logos on a red background. The left logo is the circular emblem of Food Processing Skills Canada featuring a white maple leaf and circular arrow, with the text 'Food Processing Skills Canada • Compétences Transformation Alimentaire Canada' around the edge. The right logo includes icons of food items such as fish, a leaf, and cheese in a circular arrow, next to the words 'Labour Market Information' and 'Powered by Food Processing Skills Canada' in white text.

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